Question re break-even match length. Answer: Don't know.
Question: re $ game. Answer: Enough. When I played some sessions back in 2007, I was hundreds of points ahead. This was against gnubg 2-ply. If the GU archives were available, I think they'd show that Casper in Mongolia and another reader reported trying it, and liking it.
Just for fun, I played a game yesterday. Another anecdote ;- My Snowie-equivalent ER was 41.3. Love it!
Why did Gnubg double here?
The score (after 0 games) is: Opponent 0, Hero 0
Move number 18: Opponent on roll, cube decision?
| Opponent | 163 |
|---|---|
| |
| Hero | 230 |
Position ID: TCEGzC6Yc/BgQA Match ID: MAEAAAAAAAAA | |
• Opponent doubles
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.5135 | ||
| 0.5761 0.3551 0.0604 - 0.4239 0.0522 0.0019 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | Double, take | +0.7387 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.2613 |
| 3. | No double | +0.7386 | -0.0001 |
| Proper cube action: | Double, take | ||
Ok, that was rhetorical. Why did I redouble here?
The score (after 0 games) is: Opponent 0, Hero 0
Move number 71: Hero on roll, cube decision?
| Opponent | 126 |
|---|---|
| |
| Hero | 289 |
Position ID: 7B8gwSAAwLYNWw Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA | |
• Hero doubles
Alert: wrong double ( -1.5698)! [very bad]
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | -1.3956 | ||
| 0.1182 0.0031 0.0000 - 0.8818 0.5785 0.0567 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | No double | -1.3554 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +2.3554 |
| 3. | Double, take | -2.9252 | -1.5698 |
| Proper cube action: | No redouble, take (40.0%) | ||
Actually, for no good reason. Except I knew I was a huge favorite (against 2-ply) and thought I might get the cube back again. I may be as far from gnubg's take point as gnubg was on mine on the initial double. But I knew that gnubg would continually misplay from here on (as it has been all along, which explains the 8 checkers on its 3 point). For example, one roll later:
The score (after 0 games) is: Opponent 0, Hero 0
Move number 74: Opponent to play 26
| Opponent | 126 |
|---|---|
| |
| Hero | 281 |
Position ID: AGBzCzfsHyDBIA Match ID: AgEZAAAAAAAA | |
• Opponent moves 24/22 12/6*
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | -0.2654 | ||
| 0.3098 0.1678 0.0455 - 0.6902 0.0960 0.0023 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | No double | -0.1600 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +1.1600 |
| 3. | Double, take | -1.0081 | -0.8481 |
| Proper cube action: | No redouble, take (42.2%) | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | 1 | 2 | 24/22 12/6* | +1.3334 |
| 0.8147 0.5400 0.0673 - 0.1853 0.0068 0.0000 | ||||
| 2 | 2 | 14/6* | +1.3329 ( -0.0004) | |
| 0.8172 0.5335 0.0692 - 0.1828 0.0059 0.0000 | ||||
| 3 | 2 | 19/17 12/6* | +1.3252 ( -0.0081) | |
| 0.8081 0.5336 0.0744 - 0.1919 0.0074 0.0000 | ||||
14/12 isn't on 2-ply's radar. But 3-ply would have played 24/18 14/12.