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DMP favorite after opening 41?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 3:13 a.m.

In Response To: DMP favorite after opening 41? (Matt Cohn-Geier)

How do you decide whether a game is "more complicated" than average or not? It is not obvious to me that 41S is more complicated while 51S and 52S are not.

I'll address your second sentence first. You would be giving away non-trivial theoretical equity (.0022) by passing after 41S, and you would be giving away non-trivial theoretical equity (.0028) by taking after 51S. What is special about 52S is that the equity is so close to zero (-.0002) that you can more reasonably look for other tiny factors to break the tie.

In other words, 52S should not be compared to 41S or 51S, but rather to the average of thirty possible scenarios (fifteen DMP plays from each side) plus some vig you might get when your (weaker) opponent goes first and fails to make the best DMP play. That leads back to your first sentence, which is a valid question, and probably the best anyone can do is to answer it with an opinion.

My feeling is that any play that slots the 5pt (21$) or splits to the 18pt (63S, 62S), 20pt (54S) or 21pt (43Z, 32S), thereby leading to a more likely hit or exchange of hits, will result in a more complicated game on average than 52S. It seems true for 41S as well, because the 9pt blot might get hit. 65R and 51S are the only plays that I feel for sure lead to fewer complications. The comparisons to 31P, 42P, 61P, 53P, and 64R I find more difficult.

It is possible that a weak opponent will immediately misplay after 52S more on average than on their first chance when the dice are rerolled. I'm not sure if that's true and if it is then how to factor it in. But overall I would rather reroll and try for an opening play that is more likely to lead to complications.

That said, I doubt there is much equity either way in the decision to take or pass after 52S at -1-2pC against any opponent. But instead of 2 away, if opp is 4 away or 6 away, etc., then I'm taking after 52S so that I might still exercise the free drop in a subsequent game.

Nack

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