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Bart Brooks flashcards

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 3 January 2010, at 4:55 a.m.

In Response To: Bart Brooks flashcards (Matt Ryder)

The third-roll dance cards number 50 and appear to be pretty comprehensive. I was startled to learn that almost all third roll dance situations are takes (with the exception of certain 55s such as 62S-55A-F). Before these cards I was dropping with monotonous regularity. Perhaps one of our resident early game experts can comment about the cards' accuracy in the light of modern bot developments? I haven't seen much discussion of third roll dance scenarios here.

I haven't seen the cards. Snowie rollouts from 2006 for money are fine, but so much depends on the quality of parameters and number of trials. Try to find out. You want at least 5k (preferably 15k+) and full 3-ply precise. (Live cube doesn't matter so much for second, third and most fourth roll positions unless it is a cube decision or doublets that might threaten a cube turn.)

If the number of trials is fewer than 5k, then hopefully they're truncated (1k, or at least 648). That's a lot better than say 1k full (a common blunder), with variance through the roof.

David Montgomery told me several (ten?) years ago that 51R-55A-F-C is a borderline take/drop for money. That stuck in my head and I think that cusp has stayed true in rollouts through the years.

With the 51R-55A-F-C? reference position in mind, you can logically deduce that 62S-55A-F-C is a small pass, 63S-55A-F-C a little bigger pass, and 64S-55A-F-C a little bigger pass than that. (The increased level of vulnerability of that sliding blot/builder helps the doubler.)

That reference position will also help you remember that 62R-55A-F-C, 63R-55A-F-C, 64R-55A-F-C, and 65R-55A-F-C are easy takes -- and increasingly so, in that order. (In the 60s and early 70s, experts passed all but the latter.)

And if the blot is in Opp's inner board instead of her outer board, logically the take is easier still (and increasingly so as you go in the other direction: 20pt, 21pt, and finally 23pt -- hardest to attack), with the culminating ones being ND's. It sounds like Bart's cards have nailed those positions pretty well.

Nack

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