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Testing subtracting 32 on the low end of pip count range

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 4:20 p.m.

In Response To: Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts (neilkaz)

Subtracting 32 rather than 33 looks good here since (53-32)x2=42 whose sqrt is closer to 6 while (54-32)x2=44 which has a sqrt closer to 7. (Note that I tested more than one 54-61 pip efficient position and all were clear takes)

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 61 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 54 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=---ACCD------------edba---:0:0:1:D:0:0:3:0:10
double to 2 take ?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	77.60% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.41% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	77.52% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.48% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.552
Double:	+1.101
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.823 (-0.153)
Double/Take:	+0.977
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.023)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
11283 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.001 (+0.823...+0.824)
Confidence Double:	± 0.001 (+0.976...+0.978)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 60 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 53 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=----BCE------------ecca---:0:0:1:D:0:0:3:0:10
double to 2 take ?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	78.25% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.75% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	78.17% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.83% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.565
Double:	+1.127
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.835 (-0.165)
Double/Take:	+1.006 (+0.006)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
9886 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.001 (+0.834...+0.836)
Confidence Double:	± 0.001 (+1.005...+1.007)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12

Messages In This Thread

• "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
  Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 4:30 p.m.
  • "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
    KenB -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 5:43 p.m.
    • "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 7:39 p.m.
  • "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
    David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 5:54 p.m.
    • "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 11:13 p.m.
  • "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 6:26 p.m.
  • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 8:53 p.m.
    • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 9:15 p.m.
    • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 9:31 p.m.
      • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 9:55 p.m.
        • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 1:51 a.m.
      • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
        Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 11:47 p.m.
        • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
          Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 12:16 a.m.
        • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
          Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 12:32 a.m.
      • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
        Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:00 a.m.
        • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
          Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:52 a.m.
          • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
            David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 2:30 p.m.
            • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
              Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 4:07 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 4:23 p.m.
                • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                  David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 4:24 p.m.
                • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:18 p.m.
                  • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                    Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 10:54 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:40 p.m.
            • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
              Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:18 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:33 p.m.
                • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                  David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 9:12 p.m.
                • Number of checkers represented at lower counts
                  Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 9:38 p.m.
                  • Number of checkers represented at lower counts
                    David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 10:28 p.m.
                  • Number of checkers represented at lower counts
                    Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 11:05 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:42 p.m.
                • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                  Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 9:55 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:43 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 10:13 p.m.
            • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
              Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 6:49 a.m.
              • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                rambiz -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 7:37 a.m.
                • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                  mtuhtan -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 7:45 a.m.
                • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                  Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 9:01 a.m.
                • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                  Tom Keith -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 12:57 p.m.
                  • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                    neilkaz -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 3:33 p.m.
                  • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                    Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 5:32 p.m.
              • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                David Rockwell -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 3:20 p.m.
              • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                Bill Patterson -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 3:40 p.m.
              • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                Bob Koca -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 4:21 p.m.
                • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                  Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 4:44 p.m.
                  • Link to file
                    Tom Keith -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 5:49 p.m.
                    • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                      Taper_Mike -- Friday, 1 July 2011, at 12:48 a.m.
              • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 5:42 p.m.
                • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                  Tom Keith -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 5:59 p.m.
          • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
            neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 3:43 p.m.
            • Testing subtracting 32 on the low end of pip count range
              neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 4:20 p.m.
            • 124 vs 138 pips..subtracting 32 is good
              neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:13 p.m.
              • 124 vs 138 pips..subtracting 32 is good
                David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:46 p.m.
                • 124 vs 138 pips..subtracting 32 is good
                  Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:09 p.m.
              • 123 vs 137 probably a bare pass
                neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 6:39 p.m.
                • 123 vs 137 with mid pt contact
                  neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 7:10 p.m.
                  • 123 vs 137 normal looking position
                    neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:12 p.m.
                  • 123 vs 137 with mid pt contact
                    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:41 p.m.
                    • 123 vs 137 with mid pt contact
                      neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:48 p.m.
            • Extending higher.. 137 vs 152 pips
              neilkaz -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 3:48 a.m.
              • Extending higher.. 137 vs 152 pips
                Nack Ballard -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 4:40 a.m.
                • Extending higher.. 137 vs 152 pips
                  neilkaz -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 7:15 p.m.
    • Perspective (on gold standard and N57)
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 2:56 a.m.
      • Perspective (on gold standard and N57)
        jdg -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 2:54 p.m.
    • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
      Neil Robins -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
      • GNU RO of my 61-69 pip pos is same
        neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 7:35 p.m.
        • GNU RO of my 61-69 pip pos is same
          Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 7:48 p.m.
          • GNU RO of my 61-69 pip pos is same..and
            neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 7:58 p.m.
            • 61-69 no VR
              neilkaz -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 12:22 a.m.
      • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
        eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:56 p.m.
        • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
          Neil Robins -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 9:31 p.m.
          • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
            neilkaz -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 12:19 a.m.
          • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
            eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 1:32 a.m.
            • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
              Neil Robins -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 3:05 a.m.