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To hit or not to hit - ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 6 April 2010, at 6:26 p.m.

In Response To: To hit or not to hit (Daniel Murphy)

I posted these positions to BGO in June 2008. Always happy to follow up with a rollout.

Position 1. Blue to play 43

White	54
Blue	55
Position ID: 954DIAB7dwYCAA Match ID: UwkOAAAAAAAA

Holding the cube, Blue should not hit.

Marc Olsen wrote up the first position in "Overkill - Expert Theory" in Gammon 109 (February 2008). Marc was more recently on the Danish team in the Denmark vs. the World competition at the 22nd Nordic Open this year. He had copies there of his new book, Verdensklasseserien Vol. 1 - Basic Checkerplay. The book is in Danish. Marc's commentary in Gammon was also in Danish.

Link to Marc's article: http://www.dbgf.dk/gammonblad/gammon109.pdf

See "Position 1" on page 26.

Marc notes that the position originally occurred in a match between Peter Friberg and Louisa Dahlin with table stakes capped at six points. That explains why Blue holds an 8-cube. The position was originally posted by Kedde Mathiesen in the DBGF discussion forum in April 2007. Marc's Gammon commentary references a ""meget grundig detailanalyse" in the forum discussion by Raccoon. That would be me. My commentary was in English.

Link: http://www.dbgf.dk/Debat/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=Cubeactions&Number=112207&page=&view=&sb=&o=

Alert: missed double ( -0.205)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.567
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.003	+0.003
3.	No double	+0.795	-0.205
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 8-cube 0.781 0.004 0.000 - 0.219 0.000 0.000 +0.567 +0.795 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 Player White owns 16-cube 0.782 0.004 0.000 - 0.218 0.000 0.000 +1.137 +1.003 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	12/5	+0.725
			0.710 0.000 0.000 - 0.290 0.000 0.000 +0.419 +0.725 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			756 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	12/9*/5	+0.597 ( -0.128)
			0.730 0.012 0.000 - 0.270 0.001 0.000 +0.472 +0.597 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			756 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	12/8 6/3	+0.515 ( -0.210)
			0.644 0.000 0.000 - 0.356 0.000 0.000

Position 2. Blue to play 43.

White	54
Blue	55
Position ID: 954DIAB7dwYCAA Match ID: RAkOAAAAAAAA

Having doubled, Blue should hit.

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	12/9*/5	+0.387
			0.734 0.011 0.000 - 0.266 0.001 0.000 +0.479 +0.387 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			396 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	12/5	+0.331 ( -0.056)
			0.710 0.000 0.000 - 0.290 0.000 0.000 +0.419 +0.331 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			396 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 3. Blue to play 43.

White	40
Blue	55
Position ID: v98AIAB7dwYCAA Match ID: UwkOAAAAAAAA

White's speed board lowers Blue's GWC, which means No double, and Blue should hit.

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.378
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.581
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.419
3.	Double, take	+0.564	-0.017
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (3.9%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 8-cube 0.686 0.005 0.000 - 0.314 0.000 0.000 +0.378 +0.581 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 Player White owns 16-cube 0.688 0.004 0.000 - 0.312 0.000 0.000 +0.759 +0.564 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	12/9*/5	+0.620
			0.730 0.016 0.000 - 0.270 0.000 0.000 +0.474 +0.620 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			504 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	12/9* 6/2	+0.380 ( -0.240)
			0.608 0.005 0.000 - 0.392 0.006 0.000 +0.215 +0.380 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			504 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	12/5	+0.341 ( -0.279)
			0.562 0.000 0.000 - 0.438 0.000 0.000 +0.124 +0.341 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			504 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 4. Blue to play 43.

White	40
Blue	53
Position ID: v98AIAC99wECAA Match ID: UwkOAAAAAAAA

Two home blots are too many.

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	12/5	+0.379
			0.581 0.000 0.000 - 0.419 0.000 0.000 +0.162 +0.379 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			252 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	12/8 4/1	+0.268 ( -0.111)
			0.534 0.000 0.000 - 0.466 0.000 0.000 +0.068 +0.268 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			252 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	12/9*/5	+0.268 ( -0.111)
			0.556 0.004 0.000 - 0.444 0.005 0.000 +0.112 +0.268 0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			252 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 5. Blue to play 43.

White	50
Blue	53
Position ID: 31sFIAC99wECAA Match ID: UwkOAAAAAAAA

As in Position 1, Blue had a good double before the roll, and will often have one after. Again 12/5 is best.

Alert: missed double ( -0.129)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.503
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.887
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.113
3.	No double	+0.758	-0.129
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 8-cube 0.748 0.006 0.000 - 0.252 0.000 0.000 +0.503 +0.758 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.004 Player White owns 16-cube 0.753 0.009 0.000 - 0.247 0.001 0.000 +1.030 +0.887 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.008
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
216 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	12/5	+0.622
			0.675 0.000 0.000 - 0.325 0.000 0.000 +0.350 +0.622 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			432 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	12/9*/5	+0.572 ( -0.051)
			0.696 0.029 0.000 - 0.304 0.006 0.000 +0.416 +0.572 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			432 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848609100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• To hit or not to hit
  Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 1 June 2008, at 3:17 p.m.
  • To hit or not to hit
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 2 June 2008, at 1:45 a.m.
  • To hit or not to hit
    Keene -- Monday, 2 June 2008, at 5:24 p.m.
    • To hit or not to hit
      Stanley E. Richards -- Monday, 2 June 2008, at 6:44 p.m.
      • To hit or not to hit
        Keene -- Monday, 2 June 2008, at 7:06 p.m.
        • ty, helpful rule, saved in library ("nt") *NM*
          Stanley E. Richards -- Monday, 2 June 2008, at 10:31 p.m.
  • To hit or not to hit - ROLLOUTS
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 6 April 2010, at 6:26 p.m.
    • To hit or not to hit - ROLLOUTS
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 6 April 2010, at 7:39 p.m.
      • To hit or not to hit - ROLLOUTS
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 6 April 2010, at 9:12 p.m.
    • Table stakes in pos 1
      Klaus Evers -- Tuesday, 6 April 2010, at 11:26 p.m.
      • Table stakes in pos 1
        Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 7 April 2010, at 12:13 a.m.