Thanks to all for the feedback. The posters and XG are in accord. I was allergic to leaving 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, and 6s, so that all numbers without a 5 either hit two checkers or make the 5 pt or both (all doubles except 55 and 22, which is pretty awesome anyway). After 8-2, I'm not hit by two's. I guess the point is the 8-2 play, while somewhat safer, is still not really safe and can get an extra checker sent back. Also, getting hit twice is not necessarily a disaster, given my superior board. I didn't save the rollout, but it didn't change the result by much.
           
    
         
 |  is amamlet
score: 0
pip: 153 | | 11 point match | pip: 158
score: 4
 is blotto |
|
| XGID=-b--BBC-C---bBb-ab-d-b-AAA:0:0:1:65:4:0:0:11:10 |
| to play 65 |
| 1. | XG Roller | Bar/20 24/18 | eq: -0.037 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.35% (G:19.13% B:1.73%)
47.65% (G:19.06% B:1.18%) | |
|
| * 2. | XG Roller | Bar/20 8/2 | eq: -0.225 (-0.187) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.95% (G:17.95% B:1.53%)
52.05% (G:21.29% B:1.82%) | |
|
| 3. | 1 ply | Bar/20 13/7 | eq: -0.271 (-0.234) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.89% (G:17.08% B:1.43%)
53.11% (G:20.90% B:2.55%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: eXtremeGammon