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redouble with 6 checkers back.

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 22 September 2010, at 12:18 p.m.

In Response To: redouble with 6 checkers back. (nori)

If I cube can my opponent take?

  • Double/Pass he'd be -5 -3 for 35% match equity
  • Double/Take/Lose he's -5 -1 for 16% match equity
  • Dboule/Take/Win he's -1 -5 for 84% match equity

He's risking 19% (35-16) to gain 49% (84-35). His raw take point is then 19/68 (risk/(risk+gain)) or 28%.

The gammon value for either player is .23 on a 4 cube and this is a kind of weird position to estimate gammons won/lost in. Blue is unlikely to get trapped behind any sort of prime and have his position crunch whereas the same can't be said for White. I think blue wins more gammons even with 6 men back but not an ungodly amount. I'm going to call it an even 8% more gammons pushing the take point to 30%% without figuring in recube vig.

I'm not sure White wins enough from here even when he's able to split or split and escape immediately maintaining his board. His real immediate horror numbers are all fours, other than that his position improves or maintains the status quo as all fives and sixes are killed except for the good ones. The other bad sequence for White is when Blue is able to enter and hop out being the first to place his flag on outfield control. Blue has two anchors but doesn't need to keep them, he can hop from the front anchor (22pt) since White must use his small numbers to escape and is overrun.

OtB I certainly cube as I'm not sure about the take and I doubt I'd be playing an opponent that's sure about it either. It feels like I may have already lost my market as I have two good routes to victory. I'm voting for Double/Pass.


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