Behind in the race and having the better board, I played 13/5 which is a blunder. Looking at the roll-out, the big difference is the number of times that I get gammoned jumps from 2% to 12% with the number of wins staying the same so the back checker is only a liability, not an asset in this position.
            
 
        
 | | White is zrebar
score: 2
pip: 107 | | 7 point match | pip: 129
score: 2
Blue is KenB |
|
| XGID=-ABB-BB-----bC--bcBdbAaa--:0:0:1:53:2:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/13 | eq: -0.683 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.67% (G:1.09% B:0.04%)
72.33% (G:2.28% B:0.08%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.693...-0.673)
Duration: 11 minutes 24 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/18 13/8 | eq: -0.690 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.68% (G:1.23% B:0.04%)
72.32% (G:2.78% B:0.09%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.701...-0.679)
Duration: 11 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 21/18 6/1 | eq: -0.730 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.79% (G:1.01% B:0.03%)
73.21% (G:2.65% B:0.11%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.740...-0.720)
Duration: 11 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/5 | eq: -0.861 (-0.178) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.93% (G:3.55% B:0.13%)
72.07% (G:12.06% B:0.42%) | Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.876...-0.846)
Duration: 9 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10842456
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross