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4th roll, 31 to play

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 26 December 2010, at 11:08 p.m.

In Response To: 4th roll, 31 to play (mtuhtan)


2O ' ' '2X3X '4X ' ' '4O

1X '1X1O '4O '4O ' ' '4X

51$-52$-21E-31


The second play is best (or tied for it), and the first and third are only small errors. Let's itemize the plays:

51 [S $13 R43]a

51$-52 [$ S1 D22]a

51$-52$-21: In similar positions, it is terrible to hit on the 20pt instead of covering the 5pt, so it would be even worse to hit on the 21pt. It's a choice between my slight preference of N (Near, 13/11 6/5) and E (Each, 24/22 6/5, as played). Perhaps E is better at gammon save.

51$-52$-21E-31: It looks close between two plays, but I like P (pointing on the 3pt). Typically, this is preferable to covering a point that is one higher (the 4pt here) because it denies Opp some point-making numbers and creates 4 fanning numbers. Making/covering a point that is two higher is usually better, but not at the expense of leaving a double direct shot; so the 5pt is out.

Nack

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