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Hit loose or hit and make the one point? *SPOILER* rollout

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Wednesday, 23 February 2011, at 3:25 p.m.

In Response To: Hit loose or hit and make the one point? (leobueno)

It's 0-ply, which I know the experts question, but here it is. Wondering whether it would be worth the time of the folk with big CPUs to do a better rollout.

The score (after 0 games) is: otis 0, You 0 (match to 5 points)

Move number 4: You to play 66

otis	156
You	158
Position ID: 4PPCASTgc/AJIA Match ID: cAm7AAAAAAAA

• You moves 15/9 13/7(3)

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		+0.080	(Money: +0.079)
	0.538 0.131 0.005 - 0.462 0.129 0.003
Cubeful equities:
	3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
1.	No double	+0.120
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.880
3.	Double, take	-0.152	-0.271
Proper cube action:		No double, take (23.6%)

Alert: very bad move ( -0.145)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	15/3* 13/7(2)	+0.324
			0.576 0.165 0.010 - 0.424 0.107 0.005 +0.229 +0.324 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			7777 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 877212681 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
	2	R	13/1*(2)	+0.313 ( -0.011)
			0.567 0.187 0.007 - 0.433 0.108 0.005 +0.224 +0.313 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			7776 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 877212681 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
•	3	R	15/9 13/7(3)	+0.179 ( -0.145)
			0.545 0.147 0.005 - 0.455 0.114 0.006 +0.130 +0.179 0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.009 0.023
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			461 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 877212681 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
	4	2	24/18 13/7(3)	+0.244 ( -0.080)
			0.570 0.150 0.005 - 0.430 0.117 0.002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	24/18 15/9 13/7(2)	+0.210 ( -0.114)
			0.561 0.143 0.004 - 0.439 0.116 0.002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	2	13/1* 13/7(2)	+0.192 ( -0.132)
			0.546 0.166 0.005 - 0.454 0.123 0.003
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Hit loose or hit and make the one point?
  leobueno -- Wednesday, 23 February 2011, at 2:14 p.m.
  • Hit loose or hit and make the one point? *SPOILER* rollout
    leobueno -- Wednesday, 23 February 2011, at 3:25 p.m.
    • *SPOILER* rollout - xg 2ply RO
      mtuhtan -- Wednesday, 23 February 2011, at 4:11 p.m.
    • Hit loose or hit and make the one point? *SPOILER* rollout
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 23 February 2011, at 4:14 p.m.
      • Hit loose or hit and make the one point? *SPOILER* rollout
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 27 February 2011, at 6:52 p.m.
    • Hit loose or hit and make the one point? *SPOILER* rollout
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 23 February 2011, at 8:03 p.m.
  • 51S-63R-41s-66
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 24 February 2011, at 9:20 a.m.