|
| ||||||||||||||||
Not to take anything away from Stick's excellent analysis (indeed it adds to the praise), many of the issues he mentions exist in virtually any position in which W is a conceivable candidate. We've noted that W has a higher-than-likely status when Opp's 6pt is stripped (usually because the 4pt or 3pt has been made behind it and the midpoint is still heavy. Paul's previously posted Wild position, which is repeated for reference in the right-hand diagram above, is a good example. Note my fourth paragraph under the third diagram here:
- More importantly (though related), the third concept is that White has already accomplished what she needs to (gaining an advanced anchor) with her back checkers: she is now aching to unload her midpoint into the outer board and create builders for her 5pt and 4pt gaps. Splitting to the 20pt spoils White's immediate and primary aim.
This is such a vital theme that in the right-hand position, Blue actually eschews making the 7pt and leaves four blots instead of none. The key is the stiffness of the opponent's position. Blue faces a critical tempo: he must split now while the opponent's main objective (barring a great roll) is to flood the outer board with builders.
The other valuable theme is slotting against an advanced anchor (which includes, though to a lesser degree, the 3pt anchor). This idea was explained in my paragraphs of analysis accompanying the second diagram (captioned "Blue to play 64, 63, 62, 41 or 21").
The correct play in the left-hand position above is more obvious (at least to me) because in both cases you're already split and you're leaving the same number of blots with either play. You need only consider how to play a simple 3. All you're doing is putting it on the 5pt instead of the 10pt (stripping the 8pt instead of the midpoint in the process), leaving a couple more (and more expensive) shots and a trickier clean-up in a tolerably small subset of variations.
Note further that the Wild play in both positions is aided by Opp-duplication (2s on the left, 1s on the right) and self-diversification (6s, which will be blocked from the roof, can be used to cover or hit back on the 5pt).
Finally, one must always keep a close eye on distribution. If you move one of the checkers on Blue's 11pt back to his midpoint, as shown below, and ignore the B (Both, 24/20 11/8) candidate, whether to choose W (Wild, 24/20 8/5) and S (Split, 24/20 11/10) becomes a much closer decision (because 13/10 no longer strips the midpoint). Although it cannot be reached on the fourth roll (or even on the fifth roll except by the insertion of a whopper), it provides an excellent reference position.
| |
|---|---|
| 21$-61P-21p-22E-43: W and S are very close | |
Nack