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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 31 March 2011, at 2:42 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/30/11 (Stick)

Number 1
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 76
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 39
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-HBBBa-------A----bbbbbbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 74.91% (G: 0.12% B: 0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.09% (G: 0.61% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.45% (G: 0.07% B: 0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.55% (G: 0.60% B: 0.01%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.493
Redouble:+1.007
 
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.613 (-0.345)
Redouble/Take:+0.958
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.042)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
 
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.002 (+0.611...+0.615)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.955...+0.962)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 18.8 seconds

Number 2
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 170
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-aa---EaC---dE-A-c-da---A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
to play 53

1.XG Roller+15/7* eq: +0.165
Player:
Opponent:		 53.73% (G:15.99% B:0.86%)
46.27% (G:11.45% B:0.43%)
2.XG Roller+15/10 13/10eq: +0.153 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		 54.16% (G:14.04% B:0.68%)
45.84% (G:11.35% B:0.35%)

Number 3
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 108
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=a-ABBBBBB-------bc-cbcB-a-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 65.44% (G: 13.15% B: 0.30%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.56% (G: 7.11% B: 0.33%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.57% (G: 13.76% B: 0.32%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.43% (G: 6.83% B: 0.31%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.369
Redouble:+0.802
 
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.549
Redouble/Take:+0.530 (-0.019)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.451)
 
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
 
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.006 (+0.543...+0.555)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.014 (+0.516...+0.544)
 
Double Decision confidence: 99.3%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 22 minutes 48 seconds

Number 4
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 168
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-ba-BbCCC-A--C----ccbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 69.93% (G: 20.09% B: 1.24%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.07% (G: 3.94% B: 0.11%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.15% (G: 18.65% B: 1.07%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.85% (G: 3.71% B: 0.12%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.399
Double:+1.124
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.862 (-0.029)
Double/Take:+0.891
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.109)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
 
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.017 (+0.845...+0.879)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.867...+0.914)
 
Double Decision confidence: 97.4%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 13 minutes 43 seconds

Number 5
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 104
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aBBAB-CAA---b-A-bbAcbcA---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 63.58% (G: 29.94% B: 6.17%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.42% (G: 13.77% B: 0.16%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.78% (G: 31.58% B: 6.57%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.22% (G: 13.71% B: 0.22%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.272
Double:+1.036
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.339 (-0.476)
Double/Take:+0.815
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.185)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
 
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.325...+0.354)
Confidence Double: ± 0.030 (+0.784...+0.845)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 6 minutes 31 seconds

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