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41S-54, rollateer sought

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 3 August 2011, at 8:27 a.m.


2O ' ' ' '5X '3X1X ' '5O

1X1X ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X

41S-54


As David Rockwell recently reminded me, the latest rollouts for 41S-54 suggest (again) that it might be a technical four-score position. Below are rollout results (money, dmp, gammon save, gammon go) to date:

    [S X4 R9 D20] ~31 (Dennis, Gary)
    [X S6 R9 D18] /46**15 (Stick)
    [X S2 R4 D19] <62**36 (David)
    [S X2 R9] ^46 (Neil)

    d[R S1 X3] /10 (Stick)
    d[R S1 X5] <31 (David)
    d[R S1 X2] <5 (Stick)
    d[R S2 X3 D17] <31**15 (Stick, David)

    s[X S4 R17] /15 (Stick)
    s[X S9 R24] <31 (David)
    s[X S4 R17 D22 H23] "<31*20 15 (David)

    g[X D5 S9 H10] /5 (Stick)
    g[D X5 R12] <31 (David)
    g[D X2 S11 H13] "<31 (David)

In short, R (Run, 24/15) seems best at dmp, X (hit-and-split, 24/20 6/1*) is best at gammon save, and D (Down, 13/9 13/8) seems best at gammon go.

For money, the bots don't agree, and there is still variance in 62k trials. Basically, S, X and R are tied. If S (Split, 24/20 13/8) is best, there is a good chance that we have confirmed a technical four-score position.

Is there a rollateer (rollout volunteer) interested in starting an XG2 4-ply rollout of 41S-54? The first goal is to reach 20k of S, X and R. Beyond that, probably just S and X to at least 100k trials. It can be stopped at any point and someone else can extend it.

Nack

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