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Bearoff Cube

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 4 August 2011, at 10:42 p.m.

In Response To: Bearoff Cube (Bob Koca)

That's all true.

Blue could see that he's got 5 good doublets now, which nearly always win. When Blue rolls something else, either White misses or he doesn't. If White misses (about half the time, so Blue has about 55% market losers from the original position), Blue (either slightly better or somewhat worse than a 2-roll favorite) easily wins over 80% of these. Let's give Blue 12 more wins for a total of 17 so far. If White doesn't miss -- that's 15 to 16 games in 36, Blue has 5 good doublets, so let's give Blue 3 more wins for a total of 20 wins and we have about 12 games to account for in which White on roll will be about a 2/3 favorite on average. So of these 12 games Blue wins about 1/3 * 1/3* * 2/3 (when Blue's rolled two consecutive aces) + 2/3 * 1/3 * 3/3 (when he hasn't) ~= 8/27, so let's give Blue about 4 more winners of those 12. And so ... I have Blue winning about 24 games in 36. Check the fudgematics ;-

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