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OLM Th 08/04/11

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 5 August 2011, at 4:09 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Th 08/04/11 (Jason Lee)

Grunch: This is a small double, and an easy take.

I've been using Nack58 of late. As long as we don't roll a one, it should be applicable here.

82 - 32 = 50
50 * 2 = 100
sqrt( 100 ) = 10

82 + 10 = 92 = Point of last take
92 - 1 = 91 = Redouble
92 - 2 = 90 = Initial double

By this formula, White has no business doubling. As the checkers now stand, Blue is certainly wasting more than White, but probably not much more than a pip.

In terms of the race, the contact cuts both ways. Blue may delay running when he rolls a one, but White will have to delay clearing the eight point if Blue stays. White does have one advantage. When Blue stays behind, he wastes all his roll inside. But White will only waste half of his. He gets to play the other half in from the eight point.

In terms of the hits, ..., well, there won't be much hitting. Except for the parlay when Blue rolls 61 and White hits, this looks like a race. The odds of that parlay, 22/1296, or about 1.7%. And White is not gin in all of those. Occasionally, Blue will hit a return from the bar, or hit a shot in the ensuing melee.

Mike

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