Beyond the obvious making of the 23 point with the first two, it seems the top three plays involve slotting the 5 point with the third ace. If this default 3-ply rollout of a backgame position holds any water, it seems the right concept here is to prepare to stack the 5-point, hitting the brakes and killing 6s and 5s on our side of the board.
Would anyone with a faster computer be willing to devote a bit of CPU time to a 4-ply or higher rollout, to confirm or deny my results?
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 8/7 6/5 | eq: -0.391 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.04% (G:1.78% B:0.08%)
58.96% (G:34.81% B:7.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.405...-0.377) - [56.2%]
Duration: 56 minutes 59 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 6/5 4/3 | eq: -0.393 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.22% (G:1.66% B:0.08%)
58.78% (G:34.56% B:8.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.408...-0.378) - [40.6%]
Duration: 45 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 6/5(2) | eq: -0.405 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.70% (G:1.91% B:0.08%)
59.30% (G:34.90% B:7.64%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.419...-0.392) - [2.7%]
Duration: 48 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 6/4 | eq: -0.418 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.37% (G:1.59% B:0.08%)
59.63% (G:35.03% B:8.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.437...-0.400) - [0.3%]
Duration: 19 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 8/6 | eq: -0.418 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.00% (G:1.74% B:0.08%)
60.00% (G:35.02% B:7.46%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.437...-0.400) - [0.3%]
Duration: 19 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 9/8 6/5 | eq: -0.431 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.92% (G:1.66% B:0.08%)
60.08% (G:35.20% B:7.84%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.449...-0.414) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 8/7 4/3 | eq: -0.432 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.89% (G:1.57% B:0.07%)
60.11% (G:35.26% B:7.99%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.449...-0.415) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 9/8 4/3 | eq: -0.435 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.82% (G:1.61% B:0.07%)
60.18% (G:35.27% B:7.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.453...-0.418) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 9. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 9/7 | eq: -0.441 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.45% (G:1.79% B:0.07%)
60.55% (G:35.59% B:7.80%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.457...-0.425) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 10. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 8/7(2) | eq: -0.453 (-0.062) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.16% (G:1.76% B:0.08%)
60.84% (G:36.00% B:7.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.469...-0.437) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| 11. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 4/3(2) | eq: -0.457 (-0.066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.27% (G:1.55% B:0.06%)
60.73% (G:35.81% B:7.74%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.474...-0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 12. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 4/2 | eq: -0.473 (-0.082) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.90% (G:1.25% B:0.05%)
61.10% (G:36.15% B:7.96%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.489...-0.456) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| 13. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 24/23(2) | eq: -0.590 (-0.199) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.83% (G:3.44% B:0.15%)
64.17% (G:46.01% B:4.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.607...-0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 14. | 3-ply | Bar/23 24/23 9/8 | eq: -0.643 (-0.252) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.76% (G:2.81% B:0.09%)
65.24% (G:46.61% B:4.87%) | |
|
| 15. | 3-ply | Bar/24 9/8 6/5(2) | eq: -0.647 (-0.256) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.53% (G:1.90% B:0.04%)
64.47% (G:43.25% B:9.56%) | |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
to play 11
is Player 2