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Bearoff checker play

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Saturday, 13 August 2011, at 8:05 a.m.

In Response To: Bearoff checker play (Max Levenstein)

You are not in danger of losing, because you are very far ahead in the race and have access to the cube. You would like to win a gammon. If you count crossovers for both sides, or crossovers and pips in the gammon race, you will see that you are an underdog to win the gammon. So you look for plays that increase your chances of winning a gammon.

4/3 4/1 is a slow play, you will need 4-5 rolls to bear off, your opponent is on roll and needs a likely 3. Among the safe plays, 4/off looks better, because you'd need 4 rolls only after that (you can afford a miss). White is not going to hang around waiting for a shot.

You should also look at the unsafe plays. Two of them: 3/off 1/off creates a 3 roll position with lots of misses (likely 4 roll). 3/off 3/2* creates a 4 roll position (you can afford a miss), and slows your opponent down, adding a crossover and 2 pips to the gammon-save finish line. Both the risky plays risk getting hit and have a reduction in gammon chances, but that should not worry you much as you are somewhat unlikely to win a gammon to start with.

I think with this analysis you'd need to be able to see that one of the risky plays is best, followed by 4/off. Among the 2 best plays, probably you want to hit, because hit & dance is big.

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