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Bearoff checker play (detailed lesson in response) spoiler RO at the end
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Bearoff checker play (detailed lesson in response) spoiler RO at the end (neilkaz)
Date: Saturday, 13 August 2011, at 5:50 p.m.
Nice analysis, Neil. I'd have played 3/2* 3/off emphasizing the "Hitting gains huge if he dances with 44 which otherwise usually saves G, and gains big on any of the other 3 dances" a little too much, since 4/off is closer than I'd have expected.
Using Gnubg's bearoff analyzer, we can see how often Blue bears off in X rolls (when not hit, of course).
Rolls 3/2* 3/o 3/o 1/o 4/off 4/3 4/1 2 1.621 12.963 1.158 0.926 3 21.929 24.810 24.833 18.190 4 58.035 56.670 66.238 43.220 5 18.291 0.050 7.721 37.510 6 0.125 0.000 0.050 0.154 7 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 From the table it's clear that 4/3 4/1 is much slower than 4/off, but not clear that one of the other two plays is better, since the numbers for the aggressive plays don't account for White's fans and hits and loss of 2 pips if Blue hits.
The table below shows Gnubg's 2-ply evaluation for Blue's play followed by White rolling 4-4, 4-1, 1-1numbers that fan if Blue plays 3/2* 3/off, and for 6-1 and 6-2, representing numbers that hit or don't hit if Blue leaves a blot.
Rolls 3/2* 3/o 3/o 1/o 4/off 4/3 4/1 4-4 1.517 1.071 1.010 1.008 4-1 1.517 1.018 1.281 1.211 1-1 1.517 0.097 1.303 1.234 6-2 1.108 1.280 1.180 1.125 6-1 1.275 1.048 1.214 1.147 No surprise that 3/2* 3/off gains a lot on the fanning numbers, but look at the 6-2 and 6-1 lines-- getting hit with a 2 or a 1 isn't nearly as bad as one might have thought.
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