Never mind the fact that I played the 3rd best move. When looking at the rollout of the top 3 moves something does not make sense for me. The 3rd best move has the best pure winning chances. The 3rd best move has the best gammon chances. And the 3rd best move is only .02% more likely to get gammoned vs. the best move. So why is it the 3rd best move?
I understand at this score (2a, 4a) that gammons are valued at 1, but to me that should not swing this decision. Gammons are still great for me, especially if the cube gets turned somehow.
Why does XG evaluate this move like this?
I liked my 7/5*(2) when I played it for the exact reasons that XG states, wins more games and gammons.
         
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 96 | | 11 point match | pip: 72
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBCBa-BC--Aa---aa-cbbbb--:0:0:1:11:4:2:0:11:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/8 3/2 | eq: +0.958 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79.40% (G:1.02% B:0.01%)
20.60% (G:0.49% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.956...+0.960) - [86.1%]
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/7 | eq: +0.957 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.96% (G:1.10% B:0.01%)
19.04% (G:0.45% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.955...+0.959) - [13.9%]
Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/5*(2) | eq: +0.897 (-0.061) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.90% (G:7.69% B:0.03%)
13.10% (G:0.51% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.895...+0.900) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 11/8 2/1 | eq: +0.874 (-0.085) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 76.26% (G:0.38% B:0.00%)
23.74% (G:0.80% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | 8/5* 5/4 | eq: +0.877 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 81.27% (G:3.42% B:0.02%)
18.73% (G:0.88% B:0.01%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2