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OLM Tu 8/30/11

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 11:30 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 8/30/11 (Jason Lee)

Side comment: why does it seem there are more interesting situations in online matches than OtB?

Very interesting. I see three candidate plays, and the return shots should be a big part of the decision, so let's look at those:

13/8: midpoint checker gets hit 8/36 and the 24-point checker gets hit with another 7/36. (Note I'm not including opp's homboard shifts with doublets, since it's not obvious to me that they are correct, and except for 3-3 the other two (2-2 and 5-5) are common to all candidates.)

8/3: 3-point blot gets hit with 14/36 entering numbers. 24-point checker gets hit with another 1/36. Note that 3/36 of those already counted hit both.

6/1*: 11/36 rolls hit on the Blue's acepoint and 1/36 (3-3) hits on Blue's 24-point. (1/36 hits both already counted hits both.)

Tally of total hits (respectively, out of 36 possible): 15, 15, 12. Between the first two plays (which match in return hits) it seems to me that the combination of a) keeping the blocking midpoint, and b) starting a good homeboard point takes precedence, so eliminate 13/8.

The tough part is deciding if 3/36 (just over 8%, absolute) extra return hits can be made up for my (much) better homeboard blot and builder distribution. "When in doubt, play courageously."

25/24*, 8/3

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