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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 9 October 2006, at 10:28 a.m.

In Response To: NIB #44 (Stick)

Didn't take a long rollout to figure this one out. The tried and true KISS method works here. Hitting both is great when it works, but if you are hit back or even if your opponent comes in on the 3 and 4 points you have a lot of work left to do. Hitting both loses too many games/gammons even though it wins significantly more gammons. Definitely correct @ a GG score. The other play play would most likely be correct @ DMP. Safe and sound, 20/8 13/7(2) cleans everything up, forms a nice blockade and it should be pretty easy to bring the position home from there. It wins the most games but gives up on all the juicy gammons that the hitting play does.

Money Game
148
145
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 20/8 8/2*(2) 0.590
0.9% 26.6% 73.1% 26.9% 4.7% 0.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.688 ±0.019. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 11829 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
2 R 13/1* 8/2*(2) 0.544 (-0.046)
0.6% 40.9% 67.1% 32.9% 8.9% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.663 ±0.022. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 12582 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
3 R 20/8 13/7(2) 0.526 (-0.063)
0.9% 18.0% 73.8% 26.2% 4.1% 0.3%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.622 ±0.019. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 11648 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.

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