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Source of XG error?

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Monday, 12 September 2011, at 1:04 a.m.

Who cares how to play 51 here? Right? He needs 33 crossovers to bear off all his checkers. If I play 3/0ff 3/2, I am left with 21 pips, that's at most 7 rolls. Assuming he rolls nothing but 66 from now on and I roll nothing but 21 from now on he will still lose. So why is XG shows my play to be an error?




White is enassau

score: 0
pip: 157
7 point match
pip: 25
score: 5

Blue is Lyurix
XGID=-CEDaaa-----c----c-e-a----:1:1:1:51:5:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 51

1.4-ply3/Off 2/1eq: +1.0109
Player:
Opponent:
99.98% (G:99.80% B:0.00%)
0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply3/Off 1/Offeq: +1.0069 (-0.0040)
Player:
Opponent:
99.98% (G:99.91% B:0.00%)
0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply3/2 3/Offeq: +0.9995 (-0.0114)
Player:
Opponent:
99.98% (G:99.79% B:0.00%)
0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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