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Opening 21

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 22 December 2006, at 6:38 a.m.

I don't know if anyone cares about these rollouts, esp. since I have already posted the lengthy & strengthy (yes, I said 'strengthy') GNU rollouts already. When I complete all the opening move live cube rollouts w/Snowie I will upload them to my site and they will replace the somewhat short & scattered cubeless rollouts I already have posted. The problem w/live cube rollouts is not, I believe, in how well the bot handles the cube. I personally feel that these rollouts should be trusted more than cubeless rollouts as long as the rollout is done on the strongest settings. (which mine of course always are because I'm a botwhore that way) Backgammon is played with a cube ... it should be incorporated into the rollouts. Of course the live cube rollouts take forever and typically 2 or 3x as many trials to get the statistical significance of a cubeless rollout but I've got the time and want to know. Even this rollout I am extending, I am posting it simply to share for the now.

I will only be rolling out 2nd moves w/Snowie that I find interesting, such as 2-1 slot 6-2 or can we get away with slotting with a 2-1 after our opponent opens w/a 4-1 and plays a split. If anyone has any they'd like to see rolled out w/Snowie let me know. I hope to cover all the interesting/close calls.

Money Game
167
167
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/11 6/5 0.005
0.8% 14.3% 50.4% 49.6% 14.7% 0.9%
Live cube rollout: 0.003
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.003 ±0.004, - live cube: 0.003 ±0.008. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 15552 games (equiv. 426026 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 24/23 13/11 0.004 (-0.001)
0.6% 14.0% 50.0% 50.0% 13.5% 0.6%
Live cube rollout: 0.000
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.004 ±0.004, - live cube: 0.000 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 15552 games (equiv. 495261 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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