I am showing the same three positions twice in this post. The first time, there is no analysis or commentary. The second time the positions appear, there will be XG+ or rollout and maybe a bit of commentary.
Position 1. (0.129)
          
 
         
 | | White is ez2bcubed
score: 2
pip: 150 | | 7 point match | pip: 135
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-b-B--EBC---bA-b-c-e---aB-:0:0:1:43:3:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
Position 2. (0.130)
    
| | White is ez2bcubed
score: 0
pip: 130 | | 13 point match | pip: 159
score: 2
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=----A-EbC----Da-abde----AA:0:0:1:21:2:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
Position 3. (0.144)
 
 
  
| | White is peever
score: 4
pip: 138 | | 13 point match | pip: 143
score: 4
Blue is ez2bcubed |
|
| XGID=-BBab-CAB-a-bB---a-bBbbb-A:1:-1:-1:00:4:4:0:13:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
Position 1.
In a prime-vs-prime position, the side leading in the race will usually want to split and be reluctanct to slot. However, this is not exactly a prime-vs-prime position. In slotting his 5pt, Blue duplicates White's 4s (6/2) and gives White only 3 HCs (numbers that both hit and cover).
Although Blue leads in the count, he does not need to split when White has such poor priming potential.
| | White is ez2bcubed
score: 2
pip: 150 | | 7 point match | pip: 135
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-b-B--EBC---bA-b-c-e---aB-:0:0:1:43:3:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/9 8/5 | eq: +0.425 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.90% (G:22.59% B:2.00%)
43.10% (G:12.56% B:0.86%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 24/20 13/10 | eq: +0.354 (-0.071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.30% (G:20.64% B:1.95%)
43.70% (G:12.44% B:0.56%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 24/21 13/9 | eq: +0.351 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.41% (G:20.89% B:2.01%)
43.59% (G:12.56% B:0.54%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 13/10 8/4 | eq: +0.312 (-0.113) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.48% (G:20.83% B:1.65%)
44.52% (G:12.54% B:0.79%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 24/21 24/20 | eq: +0.296 (-0.129) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.77% (G:20.03% B:2.05%)
44.23% (G:12.96% B:0.62%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: eXtremeGammon
Position 2.
It is a safe bet that at least 90% of all championship backgammon players would play B/24 6/4, as I did. However, making the 23pt, which faces White's stripped 8pt, is a higher priority. Blue's owning the 23pt will make White's life more difficult if she rolls 31 43 63 54 65 66.
| | White is ez2bcubed
score: 0
pip: 130 | | 13 point match | pip: 159
score: 2
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=----A-EbC----Da-abde----AA:0:0:1:21:2:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 24/23 | eq: -0.736 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.77% (G:5.96% B:0.20%)
68.23% (G:13.96% B:0.53%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 6/4 | eq: -0.874 (-0.139) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.48% (G:5.74% B:0.21%)
69.52% (G:18.01% B:0.96%) | |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | Bar/24 13/11 | eq: -0.979 (-0.243) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.57% (G:5.59% B:0.17%)
70.43% (G:19.80% B:1.24%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | Bar/22 | eq: -0.997 (-0.261) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.94% (G:5.43% B:0.16%)
69.06% (G:23.87% B:0.90%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | Bar/23 6/5 | eq: -1.000 (-0.264) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.84% (G:6.00% B:0.19%)
69.16% (G:25.46% B:1.06%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: eXtremeGammon
Position 3.
White has one on the bar and Blue has 23 shots to hit another. With an upside down board (Koon's corner), White will have a tough time containing Blue if White is fortunate enough to hit a shot.
However, White currently leads in the count, and she will have a very good chance of entering from the bar well before Blue gets out of White's home board. There is a lot of contact and White has an easy take.
| | White is peever
score: 4
pip: 138 | | 13 point match | pip: 143
score: 4
Blue is ez2bcubed |
|
| XGID=-BBab-CAB-a-bB---a-bBbbb-A:1:-1:-1:D:4:4:0:13:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.65% (G:24.30% B:1.06%) | 67.93% (G:24.74% B:1.12%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.35% (G:8.27% B:0.19%) | 32.07% (G:8.38% B:0.17%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.536 | +1.084 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.831 (-0.025) | ±0.012 (+0.819..+0.842) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.856 | ±0.019 (+0.837..+0.874) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.144) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 98.6% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: eXtremeGammon