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OT: Greatest Probability Problem?

Posted By: stw672
Date: Sunday, 30 October 2011, at 7:53 a.m.

In Response To: OT: Greatest Probability Problem? (Jake Jacobs)

Nice problem.

Assuming that you can only pick an answer from the 4 options and that you have to randomly select from all 4 options:

Choose 25%, probability is 50% so not 25%

Choose 50%, probability is 25% so not 50%

Choose 60%, probability is 25% so not 60%

So you can't answer the question. This is reminiscent of self-referencing paradoxes like 'this sentence is false' as others have alluded to.

Assuming that you can pick an answer not from the original 4 options and that you have to pick from all 4 options then the answer is 0%.

But there is a rather neat solution if you assume that you can only pick an answer from the 4 options but that you can randomly pick from a subset of the 4 options:

Now the answer is 50%. Randomly choose the answer from any 2 answers including the 50% answer.

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