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OT: Greatest Probability Problem?

Posted By: Jake Jacobs
Date: Tuesday, 1 November 2011, at 2:24 a.m.

In Response To: OT: Greatest Probability Problem? (Jake Jacobs)

Well, this problem is either:

a) An unsolvable paradox;

b) Solvable.

Now I won't claim it isn't a paradox, but assuming it is solvable (more interesting, to me) I see two possible answers.

There is ambiguity in the "choose randomly" instruction. Inherently there is a comparison being made, and to make a comparison we should have at least two things to compare.

Possible answer one: I will 'choose,' randomly, one of the four choices to be my first item of comparison, and then again choose randomly the second item of comparison. The chance that they match is 25%, so my answer is 25%.

Possible answer two: I will choose my first item deliberately, and the second randomly. I deliberately choose "25%," and then randomly pick, so my answer is 50%.

What are the chances that neither of my answers are right?

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