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OLM We 10/26/11 ROLLOUT at pure GS

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 1 November 2011, at 4:18 p.m.

In Response To: OLM We 10/26/11 ROLLOUT (Jason Lee)

The big difference (I think) is that at pure GS we get no extra value from winning a G. The posted OLM position has evolved to where winning an undoubled G is a non-negligible possibility. In addition, in both cases but particularly meaningful in the actual OLM situation, the chances of losing a (doubled) gammon have diminished considerably.





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 181
3 point match
Crawford
pip: 136
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-d--BBC-CA--bB--Acad-a---A:0:0:1:55:2:1:1:3:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout1Bar/15 8/3(2)eq: +0.4570
Player:
Opponent:
75.93% (G:50.65% B:28.96%)
24.07% (G:3.08% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ±0.0036 (+0.4534...+0.4606) - [98.4%]
Duration: 13 hours 41 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/10 16/11eq: +0.4518 (-0.0052)
Player:
Opponent:
74.87% (G:45.59% B:19.83%)
25.13% (G:2.28% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ±0.0032 (+0.4486...+0.4549) - [1.6%]
Duration: 14 hours 46 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/20 16/11 8/3(2)eq: +0.4439 (-0.0131)
Player:
Opponent:
75.00% (G:51.39% B:29.05%)
25.00% (G:2.81% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ±0.0045 (+0.4394...+0.4484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 36 minutes
1 4034 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 48767747
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 48767747
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

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