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BGonline.org Forums
Theory versus practice
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Theory versus practice (Timothy Chow)
Date: Thursday, 3 November 2011, at 3:49 a.m.
I'd examine it on a case by case basis because the aggressive play might affect the chance of a cube error by either or both players. Here, for example, if you continue with 54X and Opp fans, are you confident that you know whether to cube or not? If not, then decrease X's value accordingly. Do you think there's a non-trivial chance that Opp will drop this trivially takeable cube? If so, increase X's value accordingly.
Another consideration is that anytime you hit, you automatically reduce the chance of Opp making a checker play error (one or more portions of his roll can be forced or limited). One shouldn't get carried away with the impact of this factor, but against a non-expert Opp it can sometimes swing an otherwise close decision.
Nack
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