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OTB and RO etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Saturday, 5 November 2011, at 1:51 p.m.

In Response To: 31 is easier to play on the opening roll (neilkaz)

OTB I felt my opp's last play leaving me the ace shot was a slight error since he usually gets a couple of shots at me anyhow and I try to clear my broken structure. It was, however, a pressure play and now I have to try to respond correctly. XGR++ prefers to play his 32 13/11 13/10.

Looking at various 31 plays...clearing the 6 pt is safe for now, but inspite of me sometimes getting G'd if hit I just felt too much could go wrong later, including losing as a race.

11/8 then 3/2 was considered a couple of times but it is only 5 shots fewer than hitting but will lose a lot less G's.

But if I hit, I have cube power when missed and will rarely lose a race. I'd love it if he dances. Anyhow...I had to find the best hit and even though it left a new blot, 11/8 left 2 fewer shots so I felt that was the deciding factor since I am dead and often G'd when hit anyhow.

I played the correct(per RO) 13/12x 11/8 and then my opp missed with 43. He played 8/5 but XGR++ prefers coming out to challange all my blots with 21/18 since there aren't that many hit covers. I cubed after 8/5 (would've cubed 21/18 also) and was surprised to get a pass since there's certainly some decent shot potential left.

Note that hitting is wrong cubeless due to so many added G losses, but so often cubeful and as Stick says, just make the best DMP play when in doubt.

		White is fneumark score: 0 pip: 105 11 point match pip: 96 score: 2 Blue is neilkaz
XGID=-BABbBB-B--BaB---a-bbbbc--:0:0:1:31:2:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 31

1.	Rollout1	13/12* 11/8	eq: +0.2603
	Player: Opponent: 59.76% (G:8.82% B:0.16%) 40.24% (G:20.55% B:2.70%) Conf.: ±0.0034 (+0.2569...+0.2636) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/8 3/2	eq: +0.2491 (-0.0112)
	Player: Opponent: 57.17% (G:3.32% B:0.09%) 42.83% (G:6.72% B:0.16%) Conf.: ±0.0039 (+0.2452...+0.2530) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 53 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/5 6/3	eq: +0.2365 (-0.0238)
	Player: Opponent: 56.47% (G:2.17% B:0.04%) 43.53% (G:5.54% B:0.11%) Conf.: ±0.0042 (+0.2323...+0.2406) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 11 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/10 13/12*	eq: +0.2189 (-0.0414)
	Player: Opponent: 57.68% (G:8.70% B:0.17%) 42.32% (G:21.01% B:0.95%) Conf.: ±0.0033 (+0.2156...+0.2222) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/12* 12/9	eq: +0.2174 (-0.0429)
	Player: Opponent: 57.81% (G:8.78% B:0.18%) 42.19% (G:20.54% B:0.93%) Conf.: ±0.0034 (+0.2140...+0.2207) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 67389374 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• 31 is easier to play on the opening roll
  neilkaz -- Thursday, 3 November 2011, at 12:25 a.m.
  • 31 is easier to play on the opening roll
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 3 November 2011, at 9:13 a.m.
    • 31 is easier to play on the opening roll
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 3 November 2011, at 12:33 p.m.
      • 31 is easier to play on the opening roll
        Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 3 November 2011, at 1:05 p.m.
        • 31 is easier to play on the opening roll
          Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 3 November 2011, at 3:23 p.m.
  • 31 is easier to play on the opening roll
    MandM1951 -- Thursday, 3 November 2011, at 2:15 p.m.
    • 31 is easier to play on the opening roll
      Joe Russell -- Thursday, 3 November 2011, at 11:14 p.m.
  • 31 is easier to play on the opening roll
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 3 November 2011, at 11:12 p.m.
  • OTB and RO etc
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 5 November 2011, at 1:51 p.m.
    • OTB and RO etc
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 6 November 2011, at 8:50 p.m.