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| XGID=-ACBaBE---B---aa---bbbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
My haphazard thoughts so far:
1. Black's wins come 85% from when he hits and 15% when he doesn't.
2. This means he needs about 23 long-term shots, as he's only going to hit them a third of the time. (Let's discount 6-4 at this stage if we may.) By long-term shots, I mean, if white doesn't blot this go, then add the blotters next go until he does.
3. How does he get those 23 long term shots? This go, there are 13 (all 6s and 5-2), and then 7 numbers of the 25 bring white into a (safe) position. Simplify safe for the moment. So, 18 times in 36, or half the time, white remains with a 13 number shot generating position. So add 6.5 numbers that blot for next go. Is this the correct logic? So, 13 + 6.5 + 3.25.... which equals about 23 numbers long term?
4. If so black has about 31% of 20 when he hits, plus another 2 games (roughly) win the race, so let's give him 9 games, so he wins 25%. There's the take.
5. Conclusion: we have calculated that white blots much more often than not: 23/36. Perhaps this is why we are (I am) scared to cube?