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31 to play

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 18 November 2011, at 5:21 p.m.

In Response To: 31 to play (Michael Nielsen)

Lots of choices... 13/9, 13/10 6/5, 13/10 8/7, or 8/5 8/7. The first two plays leave just 2 shots and 15 ways to make the 4-pt if White fans or enters with 44,43, or 41. If White rolls a 2, Blue figures to have his hands full clearing the 7 and 8 pts safely. Between these 2 plays, I'd slightly prefer 13/9 since the builder looks a little better on the 6 than the 5.

13/10 8/7 breaks the 8 and gives you 15 ways to fill in the 4 but leaves 2 blots and 5 shots including the 44 hit and cover joker.

8/5 8/7 clears the 8, leaves 4 shots and 1 blot, but just 8 ways to fill in the 4-pt.

I'd go with 13/10 8/7 slightly over 13/9. This does leave the 44 joker so you lose a lot on that roll but you don't lose much on the 2 additional hitters since you'll have 19 gammonish return shots from the roof if White rolls 62 or 64. Plus this play starts to clear your 8-point.

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