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OLM We 11/02/11 ROLLOUT - dmp / gs

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 21 November 2011, at 2:55 p.m.

In Response To: OLM We 11/02/11 ROLLOUT (Jason Lee)

Jason and Chuck's rollouts at the score 2-away 4-away with centered cube have 5/2 winning 1.4% more "cubeless" games than 4/1*. Here are rollouts at DMP and gammon-save (1-away 2-away Crawford):

The score is: White 14, Blue 14 (match to 15 points, post-Crawford play)

White115

3X1X2X2X3X ' ' ' ' ' ' '

1X3O2X4O4O2O '2O ' ' '1X
Blue70
Position ID: 13aAACbOezMAAA Match ID: cAnlAeAAcAAE

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.002)

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 5/2 +0.6516
0.82580.40680.0148-0.17420.02470.0006 +0.6516 +0.6516
0.00080.00670.0014-0.00080.00180.0001 0.0016 0.0016
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 937970894 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
• 2 R 4/1* +0.6501 ( -0.0015)
0.82500.43190.0292-0.17500.02110.0001 +0.6501 +0.6501
0.00080.00640.0022-0.00080.00210.0001 0.0015 0.0015
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 937970894 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score is: White 13, Blue 14 (match to 15 points, Crawford game)

White115

3X1X2X2X3X ' ' ' ' ' ' '

1X3O2X4O4O2O '2O ' ' '1X
Blue70
Position ID: 13aAACbOezMAAA Match ID: 8AnlAdAAcAAE

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.015)

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 4/1* +0.6348
0.82610.42470.0315-0.17390.00870.0013 +0.6348 +0.6348
0.00110.00890.0034-0.00110.00060.0009 0.0025 0.0025
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 937970894 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
• 2 R 5/2 +0.6196 ( -0.0152)
0.82620.39920.0166-0.17380.01640.0008 +0.6196 +0.6196
0.00110.00950.0022-0.00110.00070.0002 0.0027 0.0027
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 937970894 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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