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BGonline.org Forums
PR of players and probability of winning (Question for those mathematically interested)
Posted By: Max Levenstein
Date: Wednesday, 30 November 2011, at 10:45 p.m.
I am writing a paper for an economics class on a topic called "skill vs. luck" and I have decided to apply backgammon to this topic. In one of my sections I was thinking about comparing the PR's of two different players, say someone with a PR 4 and another with PR 10. I remember a few years ago I was playing around with Snowie, and there was a statistic that I happened upon that stated something like the following: Given the Error Rate of Player 1 and Player 2, Player 1 would win a 7 point match 67% of the time. This is the kind of thing I am looking for as this directly shows the combination of skill and luck that BG incorporates.
Do you know of anything that XG2 has that is similar to this, or perhaps any other resource that I could use to compute these numbers? Perhaps there is a formula that may render these numbers?
I do not own Snowie, but perhaps someone may be willing to (if needed) plug in some numbers in to the program and see what it spits out so I can just use those?
Let me know!
-Max
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