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OT: 4th and 1 from the 1

Posted By: Gregg Cattanach
Date: Friday, 9 December 2011, at 1:17 p.m.

How come pro (and college) coaches have never done this simplest piece of math and almost ALWAYS kick the field goal. (See Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh 1st quarter last night.)

Change of making 1 yard from the 1: ~75% * 7 = 5.25 Chance of kicking the field goal: 99% * 3 = 2.97

5.25 >>> 2.97. GO FOR IT.... (Duh)

AND add the factor that you leave them on the 1-yard line if you fail instead of letting them return a regular kickoff.

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