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T4 unconfirmed! 52S-31P-62 money 4-ply rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 11 December 2011, at 12:22 a.m.

In Response To: T4 confirmed! 52S-31P-62, rollouts at all four scores (Nack Ballard)

Thanks, Ken, for rolling out 52S-31P-62 for money on 4-ply.

Bad news, though, for T4 lovers. These nacbracs show that the 3-ply money result has been overturned:

3-ply: [R S1 r4 Z10] "<=103*58 15
4-ply: [S R4 r6 Z11] "^124*62

For those who want to see the extra decimal place:

4-ply: [S R3.6 r6 Z10.7] "^124*62

As the best play at gammon go is also S, 52S-31P-62 is no T4, at least not on 4-ply. Perhaps we can try again when computers speed up enough to make rollouts practical on a higher ply.

Details of the 4-ply rollout can be seen below:

		White is XG Roller score: 0 pip: 163 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Ken
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---b-db-A-A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	22/16 13/11	eq: -0.279
	Player: Opponent: 44.10% (G:11.34% B:0.56%) 55.90% (G:18.55% B:0.86%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.280...-0.278) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 days 02 hours 19 minutes
2.	Rollout1	22/14	eq: -0.282 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 44.03% (G:10.61% B:0.51%) 55.97% (G:17.99% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.284...-0.281) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 days 03 hours 58 minutes
3.	Rollout2	24/16	eq: -0.285 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 44.35% (G:10.75% B:0.57%) 55.65% (G:19.34% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.287...-0.283) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 days 15 hours 23 minutes
4.	Rollout2	24/22 13/7	eq: -0.290 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 42.49% (G:11.54% B:0.47%) 57.51% (G:14.52% B:0.62%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.291...-0.288) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 days 17 hours 42 minutes
1 124416 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 10842456 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply 2 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 10842456 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Sorry!

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 52S-31P-62, possible T4
  Nack Ballard -- Monday, 21 November 2011, at 5:39 p.m.
  • 52S-31P-62, possible T4
    Paul Weaver -- Monday, 21 November 2011, at 10:41 p.m.
    • 52S-31P-62, possible T4
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 1:17 a.m.
  • 52S-31P-62, possible T4
    Turz -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 9:04 a.m.
    • 52S-31P-62, possible T4
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 3:54 p.m.
      • 52S-31P-62, possible T4
        Turz -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 4:07 p.m.
        • 52S-31P-62, possible T4
          Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 9:19 p.m.
  • 52S-31P-62, possible T4
    David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 2:45 p.m.
  • T4 confirmed! 52S-31P-62, rollouts at all four scores
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 24 November 2011, at 6:27 a.m.
    • T4 confirmed! 52S-31P-62, rollouts at all four scores
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 24 November 2011, at 8:08 a.m.
    • T4 confirmed! 52S-31P-62, rollouts at all four scores
      David Rockwell -- Thursday, 24 November 2011, at 2:45 p.m.
    • 52S-31P-62-d, 4-ply rollout
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 9 December 2011, at 12:22 a.m.
    • T4 unconfirmed! 52S-31P-62 money 4-ply rollout
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 11 December 2011, at 12:22 a.m.
      • T4 unconfirmed! 52S-31P-62 money 4-ply rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 11 December 2011, at 3:03 a.m.
        • T4 unconfirmed! 52S-31P-62 money 4-ply rollout
          Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 11 December 2011, at 4:50 a.m.
      • T4 unconfirmed! 52S-31P-62 money 4-ply rollout
        David Rockwell -- Sunday, 11 December 2011, at 3:55 a.m.
        • T4 unconfirmed! 52S-31P-62 money 4-ply rollout
          neilkaz -- Sunday, 11 December 2011, at 3:55 a.m.