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61 RO

Posted By: Martin Sterel
Date: Friday, 30 December 2011, at 5:11 a.m.

In Response To: 61 to play/ RO settings (Martin Sterel)

One more time to be safe I believe this to be my position, but apologies ahead if this was part of some quiz.

When I opened this old position my initial thought was hit. But too much doubts so I posted hoping to gain some extra insight.

I did not know the exact percentages on trade off OTB. I just knew constructing my board in a fashionable way and get a hit later would be hard where if you hit and he dances not roll a 4 you do have decent chance as you have good chance (Tough I am pretty sure with just 1 cover you would not hit) on 4 point board and a welcome committee if he escapes later. However having the same doubts as Casper and point of view as Timothy , in the end I shied away. Above that the score did that to, as it would not be game over leaving just 1 other alternative. So I was not even that surprised hitting could be right, as at DMP the choice is clear and some GG scores also suggest hit. But since I did shy away, have not a decent rule of thumb on trade offs ( just some idea) I did post anyway. For money XG++ also has them almost as close.

My RO got destroyed, but the ones I used are fine. I just wanted some verification on the cube .





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 65
9 point match
pip: 143
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BACC-------A-a-BAccdBbb-:1:1:1:61:1:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout122/15* eq: -1,151
Player:
Opponent:
21,92% (G:1,47% B:0,04%)
78,08% (G:57,93% B:4,15%)
Conf.: ± 0,008 (-1,159...-1,142) - [97,7%]
Duration: 7 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout118/12 4/3eq: -1,160 (-0,010)
Player:
Opponent:
11,56% (G:0,15% B:0,00%)
88,44% (G:39,22% B:0,65%)
Conf.: ± 0,005 (-1,165...-1,156) - [2,3%]
Duration: 10 minutes 17 seconds
3.XG Roller++18/12 13/12eq: -1,195 (-0,044)
Player:
Opponent:
10,62% (G:0,10% B:0,00%)
89,38% (G:40,11% B:0,46%)
4.XG Roller++18/11eq: -1,209 (-0,059)
Player:
Opponent:
10,22% (G:0,09% B:0,00%)
89,78% (G:40,57% B:0,46%)
5.XG Roller++18/17 13/7eq: -1,218 (-0,068)
Player:
Opponent:
10,03% (G:0,08% B:0,00%)
89,97% (G:40,95% B:0,47%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 39195725
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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