I didn't get around to thinking about these, but after looking at the other posters' responses, I have a comment about Number 2. The match equity calculation says that White needs 33% winning chances to take. I would have thought this was a solid drop. Although the computer says it's a drop, it's borderline. This surprises me, though maybe Seret's pipple count gives the right answer here?
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 138 | | 5 point match | pip: 152
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a--EBC---bC-b-e-e-A--A-:0:0:1:55:0:2:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 55 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 21/16 13/3* 8/3 | eq: +0.528 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.21% (G:20.93% B:0.73%)
41.79% (G:9.21% B:0.51%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 21/11 8/3*(2) | eq: +0.392 (-0.137) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.22% (G:18.72% B:0.43%)
44.78% (G:8.66% B:0.39%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 8/3*(2) 6/1(2) | eq: +0.382 (-0.146) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.17% (G:21.85% B:0.35%)
46.83% (G:9.38% B:0.52%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 8/3*(2) 7/2(2) | eq: +0.284 (-0.244) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.61% (G:18.64% B:0.38%)
47.39% (G:9.27% B:0.51%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
With the cube already turned:
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 138 | | 5 point match | pip: 152
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a--EBC---bC-b-e-e-A--A-:1:-1:1:55:0:2:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 55 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 21/16 13/3* 8/3 | eq: +0.329 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.32% (G:20.83% B:0.68%)
41.68% (G:8.94% B:0.52%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 21/11 8/3*(2) | eq: +0.228 (-0.101) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.23% (G:18.96% B:0.46%)
44.77% (G:8.72% B:0.41%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 8/3*(2) 6/1(2) | eq: +0.225 (-0.104) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.23% (G:22.32% B:0.37%)
46.77% (G:9.67% B:0.55%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 8/3*(2) 7/2(2) | eq: +0.168 (-0.160) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.97% (G:18.52% B:0.37%)
47.03% (G:8.97% B:0.51%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
   
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 57 | | 5 point match | pip: 53
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B-B-CE------------edaa---:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:5:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout |
| No Double |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.94% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.06% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.82% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.18% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Redouble: | +0.339 |
| Redouble: | +1.011 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Redouble: | +0.814 (-0.186) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.011 (+0.011) |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop |
| |
| Rollout details |
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply |
| |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ± 0.001 (+0.813...+0.816) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ± 0.001 (+1.011...+1.012) |
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| |
| Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
   
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 117 | | 5 point match | pip: 145
score: 2
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BbCBC---bB-A-c-bB-cc--:1:1:1:53:2:2:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 8/3 6/3 | eq: +0.252 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.30% (G:9.86% B:0.33%)
47.70% (G:9.04% B:0.20%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 15/10 13/10 | eq: +0.242 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.99% (G:9.09% B:0.25%)
48.01% (G:8.18% B:0.15%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 15/7 | eq: +0.238 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.33% (G:8.29% B:0.21%)
48.67% (G:6.64% B:0.13%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross