BGonline.org Forums

Daily Quiz 12/28: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 31 December 2011, at 2:46 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 12/28 (Daily Quiz)

I didn't get around to thinking about these, but after looking at the other posters' responses, I have a comment about Number 2. The match equity calculation says that White needs 33% winning chances to take. I would have thought this was a solid drop. Although the computer says it's a drop, it's borderline. This surprises me, though maybe Seret's pipple count gives the right answer here?

 White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 138 5 point match pip: 152 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---a--EBC---bC-b-e-e-A--A-:0:0:1:55:0:2:0:5:10
Blue to play 55

1.XG Roller+21/16 13/3* 8/3eq: +0.528
 Player:Opponent: 58.21% (G:20.93% B:0.73%) 41.79% (G:9.21% B:0.51%)
2.XG Roller+21/11 8/3*(2) eq: +0.392 (-0.137)
 Player:Opponent: 55.22% (G:18.72% B:0.43%) 44.78% (G:8.66% B:0.39%)
3.XG Roller+8/3*(2) 6/1(2)eq: +0.382 (-0.146)
 Player:Opponent: 53.17% (G:21.85% B:0.35%) 46.83% (G:9.38% B:0.52%)
4.XG Roller+8/3*(2) 7/2(2)eq: +0.284 (-0.244)
 Player:Opponent: 52.61% (G:18.64% B:0.38%) 47.39% (G:9.27% B:0.51%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

 White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 138 5 point match pip: 152 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---a--EBC---bC-b-e-e-A--A-:1:-1:1:55:0:2:0:5:10
Blue to play 55

1.XG Roller+21/16 13/3* 8/3eq: +0.329
 Player:Opponent: 58.32% (G:20.83% B:0.68%) 41.68% (G:8.94% B:0.52%)
2.XG Roller+21/11 8/3*(2) eq: +0.228 (-0.101)
 Player:Opponent: 55.23% (G:18.96% B:0.46%) 44.77% (G:8.72% B:0.41%)
3.XG Roller+8/3*(2) 6/1(2)eq: +0.225 (-0.104)
 Player:Opponent: 53.23% (G:22.32% B:0.37%) 46.77% (G:9.67% B:0.55%)
4.XG Roller+8/3*(2) 7/2(2)eq: +0.168 (-0.160)
 Player:Opponent: 52.97% (G:18.52% B:0.37%) 47.03% (G:8.97% B:0.51%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

 White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 57 5 point match pip: 53 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B-CE------------edaa---:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

 Analyzed in Rollout No Double Player Winning Chances: 66.94% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 33.06% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 66.82% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 33.18% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) Cubeless Equities No Redouble: +0.339 Redouble: +1.011 Cubeful Equities No Redouble: +0.814 (-0.186) Redouble/Take: +1.011 (+0.011) Redouble/Drop: +1.000 Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop Rollout details 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 2Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.813...+0.816) Confidence Redouble: ± 0.001 (+1.011...+1.012) Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

 White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 117 5 point match pip: 145 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BbCBC---bB-A-c-bB-cc--:1:1:1:53:2:2:0:5:10
Blue to play 53

1.XG Roller+8/3 6/3eq: +0.252
 Player:Opponent: 52.30% (G:9.86% B:0.33%) 47.70% (G:9.04% B:0.20%)
2.XG Roller+15/10 13/10eq: +0.242 (-0.010)
 Player:Opponent: 51.99% (G:9.09% B:0.25%) 48.01% (G:8.18% B:0.15%)
3.XG Roller+15/7eq: +0.238 (-0.014)
 Player:Opponent: 51.33% (G:8.29% B:0.21%) 48.67% (G:6.64% B:0.13%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Post Response

Subject:
Message: