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BGonline.org Forums
OLM Sa 12/31/11
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: OLM Sa 12/31/11 (Jason Lee)
Date: Saturday, 31 December 2011, at 11:29 p.m.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 11915 point match pip: 170
score: 5
Blue is Player 1XGID=--aaB-CAC--B-a-a-bbab-CbbA:1:1:1:62:5:0:0:15:10 Blue to play 62
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
This should be exciting. More so, unfortunately, for our opponent than ourselves!
After voting last time, I did a quick eval, and found that slotting against a checker on the bar (bar/21* 7/5) was better than the play I chose (bar/21* 8/6). Do you think the same might be true here? (Better than either was the play we made, bar/21*/19.)
After slotting (bar/19* 7/5), White can hit on our 5pt with any 5, as well as any 1 or 2 combined with a 3, or any 1 or 3 combined with a 3. That is any direct 5, plus 41 32 12 22 13 33, making 21 shots total. Oh, and don’t forget the many hits on the other side. Those involve entering, and hitting with a 4 or 6. Doubles 2, and to a lesser extent, doubles 1, would be devastating to us.
Moving 8/6 should be a bit safer. White can hit on our bar point with any 7, plus 1, 2 or 5 in combination with a 4, or 1, 3 or 5 in combination with a 5. The rolls that hit are 61 52 43 14 24 54 15 35 55, totaling 17 shots. Once again, most other 4s and 6s will be used to hit on the opposite side.
This time it looks like 8/6 offers plenty of duplication of 4 and 6.
Parenthetically, I wonder how the Walter-Cooke-esque, lead-with-your-chin, double hit would fare? Bar/19* 4/2* looks cute, no?
My vote: bar/19*, 8/6.
Mike
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