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Daily Quiz 12/30: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 2 January 2012, at 9:25 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 12/30 (Daily Quiz)





White is Player 1

score: 3
pip: 160
13 point match
pip: 140
score: 2

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aB-B--CB-a--eD---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:2:3:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 68.51% (G: 37.84% B: 0.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.49% (G: 6.32% B: 0.33%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.696
Double:+1.426
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.898 (-0.102)
Double/Take:+1.213 (+0.213)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross






White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 156
13 point match
pip: 161
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---dE---bbcb---B-:0:0:1:31:3:3:0:13:10
Blue to play 31

1.XG Roller+24/23 24/21eq: -0.433
Player:
Opponent:
40.34% (G:9.88% B:0.40%)
59.66% (G:18.31% B:0.74%)
2.XG Roller+8/5 6/5eq: -0.499 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
38.16% (G:10.17% B:0.38%)
61.84% (G:17.55% B:1.00%)
3.XG Roller+24/23 6/3* eq: -0.566 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
37.30% (G:9.70% B:0.40%)
62.70% (G:19.45% B:1.12%)
4.XG Roller+24/21 6/5eq: -0.581 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
37.50% (G:8.56% B:0.34%)
62.50% (G:20.81% B:1.25%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 156
13 point match
pip: 156
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aB-D-C---dD---bbcb---B-:0:0:1:31:3:3:0:13:10
Blue to play 31

1.XG Roller+8/5 6/5eq: -0.234
Player:
Opponent:
44.00% (G:13.48% B:0.51%)
56.00% (G:15.12% B:0.76%)
2.XG Roller+24/23 24/21eq: -0.356 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:
41.89% (G:10.76% B:0.45%)
58.11% (G:16.80% B:0.69%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


Truncated rollout:





White is Player 2

score: 23
pip: 145
25 point match
pip: 135
score: 21

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BEbB-a-bEA-bc-c-b----:0:0:1:00:21:23:0:25:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 64.26% (G: 6.86% B: 0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.74% (G: 4.36% B: 0.14%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.65% (G: 6.39% B: 0.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.35% (G: 4.11% B: 0.14%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.276
Double:+0.574
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.615
Double/Take:+0.574 (-0.041)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.385)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: 0.011 (+0.603...+0.626)
Confidence Double: 0.012 (+0.562...+0.585)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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