| |
BGonline.org Forums
OLM Mo 01/09/12
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: OLM Mo 01/09/12 (Jason Lee)
Date: Tuesday, 10 January 2012, at 4:22 a.m.
The first question is whether to button up outside by making the 11pt. White desperately needs to run out with one of his back checkers. If we leave the blots split, we will have more shots at an escaping checker. More shots, that is, unless White hits us first. As things stand, White has 8 (62 51 44), 10 (64 55) and 12 (66) as hitting numbers. That is 9 shots in all, and considering that White’s 4-point home board has just as many made points as ours, Blue cannot afford to take the risk. So, make the 11pt.
Next is the decision whether to jump into the outer board with our blot in White’s inner board. If he gets the chance, White will likely hit any way he can. He needs a tempo in order to give himself the chance to establish a presence in the outfield. If we are hit, do we have a preference whether it is inside or out?
If White hits, and leaves a blot on the 6pt, we have 12 return shots. When we miss, however, White will have as many as 12 or 13 cover numbers. Blots do tend to become points. Moving our blot into the outfield reduces the number of return shots we’ll have after being hit, but also greatly minimizes the opportunity for White to remake his 6pt.
Staying put has the side benefit of letting Blue diversify the spares in his home board, but that is not the primary criteria.
In this case, I think we will be better off playing for the return shots. Even when we miss them, White is an underdog to cover, so we will often get a second chance.
My vote: 13/11, 6/5
Mike
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.