[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

post acepoint game

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Wednesday, 11 January 2012, at 10:10 p.m.

In Response To: post acepoint game (David Rockwell)

Hi,

does a pipple count help here:

White:

P = 70+310? = 380

Z = 15x6 = 90

S = 7 x 1,2 = 8,4

+ 17

Total: 495,4

Blue:

P = 70+100+135+80+175 = 560

Z = 24

S = 18 x 1,2 = 19,6

Parity = 20

17

Total: 640,6,

after 6/4 1 off Blue's count = -55 + 12 -20 -1,2 = -64,2

New total= 576,4.

The chance of white to win = 70% + 13,1% = 83,1% when he enters immediately

When he doesn't enter and blue for instance takes off a checker of the 3 and 4, the chance of white winning then is:

New total blue = 576,4 - 95 = 481,4

70% - 5,6% = 64,8%

The total white winning chance is now:

20/36 x 83,1% + 16/36 x 20/36 x 64,8% + rest x rest

= 55,5% x 83,1% + 24,7% x 64,8% + 19,8% x 40% (est.) =

46,1+16+7,9 = 70%

Knowing that a safe play gives blue 30% chance indicates that a very risky play (like 2off 1off) goes with a cost.

Since a direct entrance makes blue a big underdog the risk of being hit after 3/off seems worth the cost.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.