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BGonline.org Forums
post acepoint game
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: post acepoint game (kruidenbuiltje)
Date: Thursday, 12 January 2012, at 11:44 a.m.
Since I am a bit insecure about my pipple count, especially for white.
(since there are no rules for an outfield blot)
I will calculate the EPC for both positions.
To balance the blue position to a normal 10-waste position we need to shift:
2 checkers from 1 to 5 = 2 x 2,9 = 5,8
1 checker from 1 to 6 = 3
and to be on the safe side one checker from 3 to 4 = 0,6
The total waste for blue is now 10 + 9,4 = 19,4
+ 32 pips = 51,4 EPC
This looks quite right when you consider a 7-move-no-miss = 50 EPC.
51,4 EPC = 629 pipples, my original count was 640,6 (not so far off)
Now the white position:
I think the EPC rule is 3,5 waste for 1 outfield checker,
that gives 30,5 EPC, a 4-move no-miss is 29 EPC, so this might be correct.
30,5 EPC = 373 pipples
I am 122 pipples wrong in my first calculation.
What went wrong?
I should not have counted the Zero's, difference 90
Since point 6 counts for 70, point 25 should count for 260, difference 50.
Now I come to 355,4, this is a reasonable deviation.
With my new (and improved) pipples: 373 - 629
After the safe blue move it is: 373 - 565
White chance of winning: about 100% when he enters immediately
Now this changes the picture completely.
There is no !! extra risk involved in leaving the blot on 6.
It gives reward only, because blue has a chance of about 25% to hit white later.
The total white winning chance will be about 90%.
There is one other thing:
6/4 1/off gives a nicer distribution and the chance of keeping a 4th point closed a move longer is enhanced therefore.
But I guess that this argument will start to pay off when white stays out for one or 2 more moves.
My answer 3/off
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