I often hear players say that they are leaving a blot because when the opponent enters, they want to get hit to have a chance of hitting back as the escaping checker comes around the board. This is misguided thinking even if it is correct to leave a blot. The chances of winning through recylcling are typically very small. This position illustrates the concept better than any position I have found previously. I showed it to someone who responded, why would you play safe? That's the wrong question. The shot is not the issue. The idea behind lifting is to hold the four point board longer when white dances even though it surrenders when she enters. After 3-off, blue frequently has to break another point next turn. Lifting also leaves fewer shots after sequences such as dance / big set when getting hit starts to matter.
The second position below shows that notwithstanding the arguments above we are happy to leave a shot if we can take off two while maintaining the four point board.
Position #3 shows that changing the parity makes a little differnce, but does not change the conclusion.
     
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 27 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 32
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aEBCB-A-----------------b-:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/4 1/Off | eq: -0.6505 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 15.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0024 (-0.6529...-0.6481) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1.6 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 3/Off | eq: -0.7675 (-0.1170) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 10.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0019 (-0.7694...-0.7656) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4.1 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 2/Off 1/Off | eq: -0.8071 (-0.1566) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 8.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0017 (-0.8088...-0.8055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.8 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19494919
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 27 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 31
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aECBB-A-----------------b-:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 2/Off 1/Off | eq: -0.6377 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 15.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0021 (-0.6398...-0.6356) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2.2 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/4 1/Off | eq: -0.6659 (-0.0282) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 14.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0021 (-0.6680...-0.6638) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.2 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19494919
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 27 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 31
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aDBCB-A-----------------b-:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/4 1/Off | eq: -0.5554 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0023 (-0.5577...-0.5531) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2.0 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 3/Off | eq: -0.6419 (-0.0865) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 15.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0022 (-0.6441...-0.6398) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4.9 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 2/Off 1/Off | eq: -0.7290 (-0.1736) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 11.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0019 (-0.7309...-0.7271) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.3 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19494919
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01