|
BGonline.org Forums
BQ: How do you play this Joker?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: BQ: How do you play this Joker? (Dmitriy Obukhov)
Date: Saturday, 21 January 2012, at 7:46 p.m.
You either keep the anchor, or not.
If you keep the anchor, the best play should be 13/8 20/5. At the risk of the jokers 2-5 and 2-6 -- mostly losers for you since you have no returns -- you get 7/36 ways to close your board. If you play 20/10 13/3, only 5-1 covers, Opponent gets the 2-5 joker, but his 2-6 is mostly a winner too.
If you don't keep the anchor, 20/15(3) 13/8 can't be as good as 20/15(2) 20/10, since the three rearmost checkers are slightly harder to clear, and you get no returns on 2-5 and 2-6. 20/10(2)? No, because the 2-2 return is deadly. With 20/15(2) 20/10, you're almost home free. As with 20/5 13/8, you give 4/36 jokers, but you get a few returns on them.
20/5 13/8 should win more gammons, since you have more ways to quickly freeze Opponent's six outside checkers. But 20/15(2) 20/10 should win a few more games since you have returns on the same number of jokers. On all other responses, at worst you will leave an indirect shot, but you'll be a big favorite to bring the rearmost three checkers around the midpoint and home. After 20/5 13/8, your two rearmost checkers may still be attacked in the outfield or on your 20 point, when you break anchor. On the other hand, 20/5 13/8 has some compensation. The backmost checkers are farther from home, but more builders for the closeout means less chance of losing later because you haven't been able to make the two point.
The anchor itself shouldn't be too important here. If you're hit, your winning chances depend on entering quickly. Since there are two open points and and few builders for them, you don't need the anchor to roll well. At best the anchor will help you avoid just a few gammons since, without the anchor, you're not likely to be closed out.
I'd go with 20/15(2) 20/10, because I judge that the increased wins due to the ease of bringing the position home and returns on joker rolls outweigh 20/5 13/8's increased gammons from a quick closeout and a few losses avoided, also, from not ever making the 2 point.
|
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.