Just wanted to follow up on my comment about Position 2 being similar to a position from Trice's book. Here's a rollout of the position on page 151 of Boot Camp, where Trice says that it's a bare take:
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| XGID=-BBBBCCb-----A-----bbbcbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.44% (G: 0.07% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.56% (G: 0.39% B: 0.00%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.12% (G: 0.06% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.88% (G: 0.33% B: 0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.549 |
| Double: | +1.079 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.666 (-0.334) |
| Double/Take: | +1.017 (+0.017) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 |
| Best Cube action: Double / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.003 (+0.663...+0.669) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.005 (+1.012...+1.023) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 27 minutes 00 second | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
If we make a two-pip adjustment, to make it more similar to the Daily Quiz position, then we get the position below. Note that the rollout result is quite different from the GNU 4-ply evaluation that I posted previously.
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| XGID=-BBBBCCb-----A-----bbbbbc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 76.94% (G: 0.04% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.06% (G: 0.35% B: 0.00%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 76.57% (G: 0.04% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.43% (G: 0.29% B: 0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.539 |
| Double: | +1.058 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.664 (-0.326) |
| Double/Take: | +0.990 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.010) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.002 (+0.662...+0.666) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.004 (+0.986...+0.995) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 23 minutes 31 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Finally, here's the Daily Quiz position rolled out for money. Knowing that the above positions are borderline, we can infer that this must be a big drop, since the most important thing that has changed is that White's racing equity has decreased significantly.
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| XGID=-CCBBACb-----A-----bbbbbc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 80.35% (G: 0.05% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 19.65% (G: 0.41% B: 0.00%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 80.28% (G: 0.04% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 19.72% (G: 0.37% B: 0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.607 |
| Double: | +1.205 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.683 (-0.317) |
| Double/Take: | +1.162 (+0.162) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 |
| Best Cube action: Double / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.001 (+0.683...+0.684) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.003 (+1.159...+1.166) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 30 minutes 08 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21