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Daily Quiz 1/20: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 23 January 2012, at 1:37 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 1/20 (Daily Quiz)

Truncated rollout:





White is Player 2

score: 9
pip: 164
13 point match
pip: 147
score: 9

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bB-B--C-A---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:9:9:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 66.98% (G: 38.72% B: 0.94%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.02% (G: 7.67% B: 0.43%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.15% (G: 39.77% B: 0.80%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.85% (G: 7.65% B: 0.45%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.772
Double:+2.299
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.968 (-0.032)
Double/Take:+1.805 (+0.805)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.958...+0.977)
Confidence Double: ± 0.027 (+1.778...+1.831)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
White is Player 2

score: 9
pip: 151
13 point match
pip: 157
score: 11

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--a-E-C--AbDb--d-cBb----:0:0:1:21:11:9:0:13:10
Blue to play 21

1.XG Roller+11/8eq: -0.240
Player:
Opponent:		 46.34% (G:8.19% B:0.19%)
53.66% (G:6.57% B:0.22%)
2.XG Roller+13/11 6/5eq: -0.309 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:		 46.45% (G:9.27% B:0.25%)
53.55% (G:9.15% B:0.30%)
3.XG Roller+11/10 6/4* eq: -0.337 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:		 46.70% (G:10.78% B:0.33%)
53.30% (G:10.31% B:0.34%)
4.XG Roller+6/4* 4/3eq: -0.362 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:		 45.90% (G:10.13% B:0.33%)
54.10% (G:10.37% B:0.35%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--a-E-C--AbDb--d-cBb----:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.XG Roller+11/10 6/4* eq: -0.098
Player:
Opponent:		 47.05% (G:11.18% B:0.33%)
52.95% (G:11.73% B:0.46%)
2.XG Roller+11/8eq: -0.100 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		 46.36% (G:8.57% B:0.19%)
53.64% (G:6.98% B:0.25%)
3.XG Roller+13/11 6/5eq: -0.115 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		 46.87% (G:9.78% B:0.29%)
53.13% (G:10.74% B:0.42%)
4.XG Roller+6/4* 4/3eq: -0.126 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		 46.50% (G:10.68% B:0.34%)
53.50% (G:11.79% B:0.48%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Truncated rollout:





White is Player 1

score: 4
pip: 173
7 point match
pip: 134
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ba-B-EB-AA-dC---b-db---A-:0:0:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 63.33% (G: 22.66% B: 1.80%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.67% (G: 7.69% B: 0.29%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.13% (G: 22.40% B: 1.80%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.87% (G: 7.73% B: 0.29%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.429
Double:+1.019
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.861 (-0.099)
Double/Take:+0.959
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.041)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.851...+0.870)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.948...+0.971)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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