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BGonline.org Forums
Take The 3 and Run-OT
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Take The 3 and Run-OT (Gregg Cattanach)
Date: Monday, 23 January 2012, at 9:08 p.m.
Frank looked at the 4th and 1 anywhere on the field for an article we wrote for Esquire magazine a few years ago. It was hard to find one (between equal, average teams).
The model gets a tuneup occasionally and I don't remember exactly what I said about 4th and anything to go from the opponent's 10 in. (What you say has a ring to it but there hopefully were some assumptions about score, time-of-game, etc.). I just looked at the score (leading by 3) and time of game (9:02 remaining in 3rd quarter) and for 4th and goal the breakeven yardline is the opponent's 5. Outside of that it's better to kick and inside that it's better to try for TD. (Again, equal and average teams.)
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