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Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions

Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 12:06 p.m.

In Response To: Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions (Stick)

I think that being a truncated rollout plus XG not evaluating the containment side highly enough (a known weakness) may contribute to its misevaluation.

Obviously a setting higher than 4-ply will play this better but 3-ply with a long enough truncation gets closer to the truth.

I tested all odd truncations from 9 to 19 and this was the first closest to your rollout.

Michael

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 160 7 point match pip: 59 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABBBBA-----------cdBecBA:0:0:-1:00:1:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Messages In This Thread

• Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
  Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 4:12 p.m.
  • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
    Christian Sorensen -- Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 4:16 p.m.
    • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
      6stones -- Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 4:49 p.m.
      • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
        Christian Sorensen -- Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 5:29 p.m.
        • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
          6stones -- Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 5:35 p.m.
          • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
            Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 7:08 p.m.
  • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
    Neil Robins -- Monday, 23 January 2012, at 8:16 a.m.
    • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
      Stick -- Monday, 23 January 2012, at 9:40 a.m.
      • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
        Neil Robins -- Monday, 23 January 2012, at 3:01 p.m.
      • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
        Michael Depreli -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 12:06 p.m.
    • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 23 January 2012, at 11:18 p.m.
      • 2-ply play, 3-ply (Red) cube RO
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 3:11 p.m.
    • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 2:28 a.m.
  • Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions
    Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 2:54 p.m.

 

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.09% (G:46.72% B:17.21%)	66.61% (G:45.65% B:25.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.91% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)	33.39% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+1.140	+1.447
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.908	±0.006 (+0.902..+0.914)
Double/Take:	+0.894 (-0.014)	±0.008 (+0.886..+0.902)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.092)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.4%
Rollout details
Truncated at 19 moves using 3-ply. 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		99.7%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 32 seconds

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