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Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions

Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 12:06 p.m.

In Response To: Alternative(s) to XGR++ for cube decisions (Stick)

I think that being a truncated rollout plus XG not evaluating the containment side highly enough (a known weakness) may contribute to its misevaluation.

Obviously a setting higher than 4-ply will play this better but 3-ply with a long enough truncation gets closer to the truth.

I tested all odd truncations from 9 to 19 and this was the first closest to your rollout.

Michael





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 160
7 point match
pip: 59
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABBBBA-----------cdBecBA:0:0:-1:00:1:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Messages In This Thread

 

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.09% (G:46.72% B:17.21%) 66.61% (G:45.65% B:25.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.91% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) 33.39% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +1.140 +1.447
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.9080.006 (+0.902..+0.914)
Double/Take:+0.894 (-0.014)0.008 (+0.886..+0.902)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.092)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.4%
Rollout details
Truncated at 19 moves using 3-ply.
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:99.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 32 seconds
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