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Daily Quiz 1/21: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 2:49 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 1/21 (Daily Quiz)

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 158 7 point match pip: 133 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b-aCCBC---bC---bccb--A--:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	63.23% (G: 19.65% B: 1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36.77% (G: 7.98% B: 0.33%)
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Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.439
Double:	+0.811
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Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.488
Double/Take:	+0.203 (-0.285)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.512)
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Best Cube action: No Double / Take
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 Money session Jacoby pip: 133 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b-aCCBC---bC---bccb--A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	63.26% (G: 19.76% B: 1.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36.74% (G: 8.02% B: 0.32%)
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Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.265
Double:	+0.773
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Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.589
Double/Take:	+0.522 (-0.068)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.411)
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Best Cube action: No Double / Take
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

---

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 40 7 point match pip: 38 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBDBCB----------------cc--:1:1:1:43:5:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.	XG Roller+	4/0ff 3/0ff	eq: -0.011
	Player: Opponent: 49.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 50.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller+	5/2 5/1	eq: -0.081 (-0.070)
	Player: Opponent: 45.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 54.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Variant:

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 40 7 point match pip: 36 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBCBCB----------------cc--:1:1:1:43:5:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.	XG Roller+	5/2 5/1	eq: +0.273
	Player: Opponent: 63.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 36.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller+	4/0ff 3/0ff	eq: +0.149 (-0.123)
	Player: Opponent: 57.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 42.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

Truncated rollout:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 111 7 point match pip: 95 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aD--BBB-A-AAb---Baabcd-a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances:	69.78% (G: 8.86% B: 0.38%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:	30.22% (G: 4.71% B: 0.18%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:	69.62% (G: 8.97% B: 0.40%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:	30.38% (G: 4.25% B: 0.18%)
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Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.440
Double:	+0.899
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Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.694 (-0.018)
Double/Take:	+0.712
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.288)
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Best Cube action: Double / Take
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Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
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Confidence No Double:	± 0.011 (+0.683...+0.705)
Confidence Double:	± 0.015 (+0.697...+0.727)
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Double Decision confidence:	97.2%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
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Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 1/21
  Daily Quiz -- Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 2:57 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 1/21
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 6:35 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 1/21
    RobertFontaine -- Sunday, 22 January 2012, at 7:48 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 1/21
    David Rennie -- Monday, 23 January 2012, at 3:51 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 1/21
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 12:12 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 1/21: XGR+ evals
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 2:49 p.m.