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xxP-43D-64R-52, four positions

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 6:57 a.m.

In Response To: xxP-43D-64R-52, four positions (Daniel Murphy)

... that Blue should play 13/11* 6/1* after 64P-43D-64R-52 and 53P-43D-64R-52, but make the 4 point after 42P-43D-64R-52 and 31P-43D-64R-52. The reason I come up with is:

13/11* 6/1* is not a weak play in any of the four positions. In all of them it is strongest, of course, when White (fans or) doesn't roll an ace -- Blue has builders on 6 spares on 5 points with which to continue an attack. However, if White hits, Blue from the bar has few ways to use 5's or 4's offensively, but he'll be pleased enough to use 5's or 4's to enter high if he can. For example, if White does not own the 5 point, 5-4 might anchor, 5-1 and 5-2 can point in the outfield. If White owns the 5 point, 1-5, 2-5 and 4-5 are sad numbers. Similarly, if White owns or doesn't own the 4 point, and Blue enters with 4-1 4-2 or 4-3.

Also, whatever Blue is able to do offensively from the bar, he's better off defensively with an acepoint anchor and a started advanced anchor facing Opponent's 8-6-3 or 8-6-2, than he is with 3 checkers deep facing Opponent's 8-6-5 or 8-6-4.

No doubt other follow-ups have their own subtleties. But it seems to me that when things go well, hitting twice is about equally good when White responds poorly, with any difference in equity in the positions due mainly to the quality of White's home board point. But when White responds well, Blue would much rather not have to enter from the bar against a 6-5 or 6-4 board.

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